As it gets closer and closer to 1 November 2020, here are some of the top races to watch on election night
Here are some of the key races in the coming months that will determine which party controls the House of Representatives.
Midterms: every race except the presidential election is decided | Anne Perkins Read more
Democrat gains up north
Gains in the North, coupled with losses in California, Wisconsin and Michigan, almost certainly mean the Democrats will take the House.
West coast races
California has plenty of states (26, to be precise) with major elections this November. The midterms are seen as a test of strength, but they will not have an impact on the result of the 2020 presidential election.
However, the House will be decided, and will set the agenda of the rest of the year. Nine of the ten most expensive Senate races last November all came in California, where a state senator, Kevin de León, is vowing to run for Senate. Six other Californians are vying for the Democrats’ nomination.
A few seats will not be decided, and this is where some of the Senate contests lie. Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, New York and Minnesota are at risk from Democrats, but a loss would also mean they failed to take the House.
Elections to watch in the White House
No president has sought reelection since Franklin Delano Roosevelt was defeated in 1936, and the fact that Trump is mounting a campaign has thrown a curveball into the plans of strategists on both sides.
Although his party is likely to hold the Senate in November, it would be a surprise if he didn’t win the House and thereby act as a blocking mechanism for all of his legislative agenda. The Democrats have already warned that they will impeach him if they win the House, but in truth, the situation could become completely bonkers by 2020.
If Trump survives to finish his term, the political firestorm he ignited could push Republicans down to a staggering 70-30 drubbing, where a Republican House would rubber-stamp his wishes. If Clinton won reelection, it would be very different, and Republicans would reap a much better harvest in 2020.